“Rights, law, justice!” - What’s going on in Turkey?

President Erdogan’s quest to expand his power has seen democratic freedoms chiselled away in Turkey over the past two decades. But after jailing a key political opponent on trumped-up charges, protests demanding the restoration of democracy have erupted in the streets. Will they lead to fair elections, or will the country slide deeper into authoritarianism as Erdogan cracks down on the dissenters?

Image: Mahmut Yildiz

For over a week, the thunderous sound of revolution has echoed across the streets of Turkey’s largest cities. 

Hundreds of thousands of protestors have gathered in public squares to declare their anger at their government, and, in particular, President Recep Erdogan. 

Draped in the colours of the flag, their chants demanding “rights, law, justice!” have electrified a nation determined to stand up for their besieged electoral rights following the jailing of one the country’s prominent opposition leaders. 

The police have responded with a draconian crackdown, arresting nearly 2000 people, deporting journalists, and requesting the blocking of X accounts to prevent further escalation. 

But these actions have only fanned the flames of discontent. The marches have continued at a daily rhythm, amassing crowds not seen since anti-government demonstrations in 2013.

So how has the arrest of one man sparked such outrage across Turkey, and why is the West so silent as one of its close allies slides into authoritarianism?

The Embers of Democracy

President Erdogan has ruled over Turkey in one way or another since 2003. As the leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), he became the only leader in the country’s history to win three consecutive general elections, before a victory in the 2014 presidential race. 

In those 20 years, Erdogan’s grip has tightened, and the once-proud democratic institutions which defined the state have weakened. The government has extended control over the media, meaning most information in the public domain is censored or propaganda. During election campaigns, opposition parties receive little to no coverage, while social media platforms are regularly blocked. A controversial 2017 referendum, accused of being rigged, removed the office of the Prime Minister and transferred significant powers away from parliament into Erdogan’s hands.

The erosion of checks and balances within the government and Erdogan’s consolidation of power over the courts, the army and the media mean Turkey is now considered on the brink of authoritarianism. 

The thin line which prevents it being classed in this way is the fact it still holds multi-party elections - unlike in North Korea, for example. 

However, the events of the past week have highlighted how the system unfairly treats opposition parties to manipulate these election results, and awoken the wrath of the voters who feel their freedoms have been infringed upon for too long. 

The Mayor’s Arrest

On Wednesday 19 March, the current mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, was detained on suspicion of corruption. Four days later, his charges were confirmed and he was thrown into jail.

The move came as Mr Imamoglu was set to be confirmed as the Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) candidate for the 2028 presidential election, with over 15 million votes supporting his ticket. 

Or, in other words, he was about to become Erdogan’s number one political rival and challenge him for the Turkish premiership. Even though Erdogan cannot currently stand for a fourth term as president, an early election or a constitutional amendment could pave the way for him being on the ballot paper, ideas which an AKP spokesperson have hinted are “on our agenda”. 

Imamoglu faces charges of extortion, bribery and money laundering. He was also accused of terrorism for allegedly sympathising with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a banned militant organisation, although as of yet no formal charges have been brought forward in this regard. 

But thousands of protestors have denounced these allegations, calling them a trumped-up effort to remove Imamoglu as a threat to Erdogan’s grip on power. 

This argument has particular credence given the day before his arrest, Imamoglu’s university degree was annulled due to ‘irregularities’. Presidential contenders must have a degree to stand in the election, making this an unsubtle effort to delegitimise his candidacy. 

Imamoglu is seen as a refreshing alternative to Erdogan by many in Turkey. He has championed returning power to parliament, a free press and social reforms. Secularism - the separation of religion from politics so that people can follow any faith without fear of state persecution - has been gradually replaced by Islamic conservatism over the years, something Imamoglu wants to reverse. His progressive stances on women’s and minority rights are appealing to the country’s youth in particular. 

So for many in Turkey, his arrest - and the doubt that any trial will be fair - has been a step too far. Having seen their freedoms regress over the decades, the inability to support a preferable alternative to the AKP has boiled over into rage against the current regime and sparked nationwide protests demanding Imamoglu’s release and the restoration of democracy.

And despite the police’s heavy-handed crackdown on these gatherings and Erdogan decrying them as “street terrorism”, the arrests have only emboldened protestors. Millions are now believed to be part of the movement, voicing their demands for the return of fair elections. 

Why is the West so silent?

Despite the troubling scenes erupting, there is a notable lack of comment from Western leaders. When it comes to Erdogan, there tends to be a lot of stepping on eggshells, and the democratic repression currently underway offers little by way of exception. 

Turkey sits at a pivotal crossroads between Europe and the Middle East. The country hosts millions of refugees who have fled wars in Syria, Iraq and Georgia, and Erdogan has used his borders as a leveraging tool with the EU on several occasions. 

Multiple threats to “open the gates” and send these refugees into Europe have allowed him to extract economic support from his neighbours, and his continued power over migrant flows remains a concern for continental leaders. Governments will be wary of angering Erdogan into allowing more refugees across their borders for fear this will further stoke their surging far right movements. 

Turkey also remains a member of NATO, and its proximity to Russia makes it an important partner in the alliance. Despite preventing Russian warships from reinforcing the Black Sea naval fleet through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, Turkey has retained a cordial relationship with Putin and both presidents have expressed their respect for one another. Turkey is the only NATO country not on Russia’s unfriendly list, owing to the fact it has not introduced sanctions or broken economic ties. 

There could therefore be heightened fears of provoking Erdogan into reconsidering his allegiances. A negative reaction from the West towards his domestic approach might be all it takes for the Turkish strongman to transition into a more neutral figure in the Ukraine War or strike new deals with Putin.

For many European leaders, keeping Erdogan on-side in these global challenges will be seen as a strategic necessity, while the democratic rights of his nation take an unfortunate backseat. 

Authoritarianism or democracy?

Turkey was once considered a blueprint for the future of the Middle East: a democratic, secular state where all religions were respected and all voices were heard.

But Erdogan’s rule has increasingly made democracy an illusion. It is one that thousands of protestors now wish to shatter. 

Their movement’s success could pave the way for a fair election in 2028, with Imamoglu able to challenge the man who has caused unchecked damage to the foundations of Turkish society for two decades. The results may beckon in a new dawn in the country’s history and enshrine the nation’s freedoms back into the constitution.

But with Erdogan showing no signs of caving to the demands of his people, the country could just as easily sink deeper into the quicksand of authoritarianism. 

A limited appetite for interference from the West means the power to change this trajectory rests with the people of Turkey. Their resilience might be the deciding factor on which way the pendulum swings.