Marine Le Pen’s conviction: the criminal, the crime and the consequences

On Monday, Marine Le Pen was found guilty of embezzlement and barred from running in the 2027 French presidential election. We look at why her policies are so popular and yet so controversial, what she did wrong, and what it might mean for the future of her party.

Source: Gregory Roose

On Monday morning, French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen saw her chances of premiership scuppered when a court ruled she could not run for public office for five years.

The decision was accompanied by a two-year suspended sentence, a further two years in an electronic tag and a €100,000 fine after she was found guilty of embezzling EU funds.

Following a surge in popularity for her National Rally (RF) party in recent years, the ruling is a hammer blow to the far-right movement, but it may not be enough to alter the trajectory of France’s 2027 election.

What’s behind Le Pen’s popularity, and how might this conviction affect her party’s future?

The Criminal

Marine Le Pen is a lawyer and the leader of the Rassemblement National (National Rally, RF) in the French National Assembly. She is the daughter of the party’s founder and former leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen. 

RF is at the forefront of France’s far-right populist movement. The party advocates for strict immigration measures, including taking control of national borders by ending the free movement (Schengen) zone within the EU. They aim to reduce net migration from 200,000 to 10,000 people per year, grant priority to French nationals in employment and welfare, and end automatic citizenship for those born to immigrants within the country’s borders. 

They also want to weaken other EU legislation such as its climate policies, increase police numbers, reduce VAT on essential goods and introduce tariffs of up to 35% on imports to protect domestic manufacturing. You can read more about what tariffs are and their potential economic damage here. 

As the captain of the ship, Le Pen has become the face of these proposals. Her stances have gained her popularity from one segment of society who feel French identity is being eroded as a result of immigration and that there needs to be tougher positions on law and order, welfare and taxation. 

For these reasons, the RF became France’s second-largest party in the National Assembly in 2022. In last year’s snap election, they won the first round of voting, before a pact between their rivals impeded their chances of gaining a majority in the run-off. 

But the RF’s controversial views have left Le Pen abhorred by another portion of the nation. Her comparisons of an Islamic presence in France to Nazi occupation, her labelling of the EU as an undemocratic institution and her vocal admiration of Vladmir Putin has made her a toxic figure to many. The huge turnout in last year’s election and the surge in support for left-wing parties was largely considered a rejection of her politics. 

Despite these criticisms, Le Pen had become a frontrunner in the upcoming 2027 presidential election, according to opinion polls. She has run for the role three times, increasing her vote share on each attempt. With Emmanuel Macron unable to seek re-election and a deepening anger towards his administration, her fourth effort might have been a victorious one. 

But the verdict read out in court on Monday has thrown a spanner in the works. 

The Crime

Along with 23 other senior party figures, Le Pen was accused of hiring assistants through the European Parliament, but setting them to work on party matters. 

By creating jobs through the EU, the RF did not have to pay these workers from their own party budget: instead, they were funded by taxpayer contributions to the European Parliament’s coffers. However, instead of working on parliamentary affairs, the assistants were instead supporting RF party operations in France. 

The money for party work should come from donations, membership fees and French state funds. Using EU money for party activities means the RF defrauded the public and embezzled over €2.9 million by hiring employees in this duplicitous way. 

During the verdict which pronounced Le Pen guilty, Judge Benedicte de Perthuis described her as being at the “heart of the system” of this misappropriation of funds. 

He sentenced her to a four-year prison sentence, with two years in an electronic tag and two years suspended. This means Le Pen will not see the inside of a cell if she does not commit any more crimes within these four years. 

She was also fined €100,000 and, crucially, barred from running for public office for five years, making her an ineligible candidate for the 2027 presidential election. 

Le Pen denies any wrongdoing, and has lambasted the ruling as a “political decision” by judges using “measures that are reserved for authoritarian regimes”, in an interview with TF1. 

US President Donald Trump, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, Elon Musk and Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov have all expressed their criticism at what they are describing as an attack on democracy. 

La Pen has already appealed the verdict, and the court expects to make a ruling on this by the summer of 2026. This could offer her a way back into the presidential race, but only if she is cleared of any wrongdoing. 

The Consequences

The big question now: is the momentum behind the RF due to Le Pen, or due to the party? If the former, the conviction could be a gamechanger for rival parties who will compete to attract her supporters who now may feel politically homeless. 

But it is unlikely the tensions simmering beneath France’s surfaces will calm down, and the RF still offers a desirable alternative to millions who wish to see a greater focus on their national identities and domestic needs. 

While the appeal is being considered, and to prepare for the possibility of the conviction not being overturned, the RF must rally around a new presidential candidate - one who can muster up Le Pen levels of support and keep the momentum behind the party. 

The likely option is party president, Jordan Bardella. At just 29 years of age, he is seen as Le Pen’s protégé, and considered to be even more hardline than her. 

Bardella refuses to discuss whether he will take over the ticket, instead vowing to support Le Pen’s appeal and “continue the fight with her until the end”. He is calling for a peaceful rally in Paris in response to the “tyranny” of the courts.

But should the sentence not be overturned, many within RF see him as their best alternative: polls suggest he commands a similar level of popularity to Le Pen and could therefore keep the presidency open to a far-right candidate.

However, his youth and inexperience, particularly in debates against political veterans, may present a challenge during the campaign. 

Other political camps could also use the convictions of several senior RF figures as an attacking line on their unsuitability for office. If they cannot be trusted with public funds, why should they govern? It is a fair question that might pull more moderate voters away from the party. 

But in a twist to what may be expected, there is a possibility the court’s decision may just turbocharge the far-right and lead to a consolidation of support around Le Pen, Bardella, or any other RF figure on the ballot paper. 

Following Donald Trump’s convictions in a hush money trial last year, he successfully portrayed himself as a victim of a political witch hunt intent on keeping him out of power. Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch far-right faction, was convicted of inciting discrimination in 2016, yet saw his popularity surge in the wake of the trial. 

Across the world, where the independence of the courts was once respected, they are now labelled as political tools of the liberal class to silence their opponents. Guilty verdicts - no matter what they are relating to - are dismissed as efforts to undermine democracy rather than the products of a fair judiciary process. Faith in the system has been replaced by faith in populist idols, and Le Pen is the figure French nationalists (and, increasingly, moderates) are rallying around. 

Her conviction might be the spark which her supporters feel proves their point: they are being torn down, muzzled and ignored by mainstream institutions. To them, a conviction does not prove Le Pen is guilty of a crime, but that she is guilty of standing up to the elites on their behalf. 

If that is a message which catches fire as it did in America, the future of French politics might belong to the RF.