Why doesn’t Zelenskyy want Trump’s peace deal?
The Ukraine War has cost thousands of innocent lives and converted millions into refugees. Trump has offered a roadmap to peace: a deal with Russia which might freeze or even end the conflict. So why doesn’t Ukrainian President Zelenskyy seem to keen to lay down his arms and stop the suffering of his people?
A quick recap
During a fiery Oval Office spat, US President Donald Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of gambling with World War Three and declining his offers of striking a peace deal. The Daily Mail summarised it as “a spectacle to horrify the world”.
After Zelenskyy jetted to Washington to negotiate America’s continued support of his war-ravaged country, Trump raged: “You’ve allowed yourself to be in a very bad position. You don’t have the cards right now. [...] You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people, you’re gambling with World War Three and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to this country.”
He continued: “You’re not winning this. [..] You’re buried there. Your people are dying. You’re running low on soldiers. And then you tell us, ‘I don’t want a ceasefire. I don’t want a ceasefire’.”
It followed a tumultuous month for the Ukrainian leader, which had seen Trump accuse him of being a dictator and declare that he should never have started a war he couldn’t win. But despite the US President’s ungraceful delivery, does he have a point? Zelenskyy has been outspoken since the start of the conflict about his desire for peace and an end to his people’s suffering. So why is he not jumping for joy that Trump reckons he can strike a deal with Putin to end the war?
Both men claim their top priority is ending the bloodshed, but their tactics are misaligned. Zelenskyy wants a just and lasting peace which sees Russia punished for its illegal invasion and Ukraine protected from any further assaults. Trump wants an end to the fighting so that America can stop funding Ukraine’s defence and recover what it has already donated - and if that requires giving in to Putin’s demands for keeping its gains, so be it.
This week, the US and Ukraine will meet to try and find a ceasefire that works for both of them before presenting it to Russia for approval. But with Trump siding more with Russian demands, will Zelenskyy ever be happy with a peace deal drafted by the US President?
The conditions of a ceasefire
Zelenskyy’s central message is that any deal concerning the future of Ukraine should involve Ukraine as part of the negotiation process, something neither Trump nor Putin were initially willing to guarantee. Zelenskyy points out a deal struck without Ukrainian involvement will likely not be just or lasting and his government will be unwilling to sign anything unfavourable to their citizens.
In particular, Trump has hinted that his peace deal will likely hand over some of Ukraine’s territory to Russia, such as the areas it has already captured. He even presented this option as a deserved ‘reward’ for Russia fighting so hard for the land.
But Zelenskyy is asking why the onus should be on his country to make sacrifices to bring about an end to a war they did not start - and why Russia should be offered anything at all for their aggression.
By sidelining Ukraine, Trump and Putin could essentially carve up the country and amputate areas of Russian control. This amounts to roughly 20% of the whole state and up to 3.5 million people already living under occupation.
Let’s put that into a UK context. If Russia invaded our home, would our government - or us - be willing to part ways with Yorkshire, the North East and the North West after battling to keep every inch of it? Especially if the decision to give it up had been made without us in the room?
Ukrainians, like most nations, value their land and their compatriots, and seem determined to fight on to reclaim both. While the peace deal might end the war, it would not be a victory for Ukraine if losing what they have fought and died for is the price to pay.
If they feel like they can either press on to victory or at least pressure Russia into a deal more favourable to them, they will remain reluctant to sign something so damning to their territorial integrity.
Saudi Arabia is now hosting talks between the US and Ukraine so they can find some common ground about what peace looks like - that does at least mean the victim is part of the conversation. But if a ceasefire agreement is struck between the two, there is no guarantee Putin will sign it if he thinks he can gain more by fighting on. And even if he does, there is little faith from Ukraine he will keep his word.
Will Putin actually cease fire?
During the Oval Office spat, Zelenskyy highlighted Trump was doing a deal not with a diplomat, but with the devil himself.
Russia has not got a convincing CV when it comes to keeping the peace. In 2008, when its forces marched into Georgia, a ceasefire was brokered and Russia promised to remove its troops. However, soldiers remain stationed in two provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, to this day.
By recognising the independence of these Georgian regions, Russia claims it is not in Georgian territory. Given Putin’s remarks about the whole of Ukraine belonging to his empire, this wordplay may repeat itself.
Zelenskyy has also drawn up a list of 25 times Russia has violated the Minsk agreements, a series of ceasefire deals following the 2014 Donbas war. The entire reason there are multiple Minsk agreements is because as soon as Ukrainian forces pulled back, Russia took advantage and resupplied the separatists, who seized more territory in blatant disregard to the ceasefire. They vowed to do the same again unless Kyiv reconsidered the terms of the agreement.
So Ukrainians have few reasons to trust Putin. A ceasefire deal might simply be Russia’s way of forcing the opponent to take their eye off the ball while they remobilise to hit even harder.
Security guarantees
With the risk of Putin violating the ceasefire, Zelenskyy wants assurances that any agreement will come with security guarantees: protections from another attack offered by allies. There might even be unenthusiastic wiggle room on some of the unfavourable aspects of a deal, such as losing territory, if there are firm commitments that Russia will never venture into Ukraine again since this would protect millions of people in perpetuity. It wouldn’t be a win for Ukraine in the short-term, but if Zelenskyy weighs up this will prevent the total annihilation of his country he might start to bend.
Most obviously, Zelenskyy wants NATO membership. This would mean that if Russia restarted its offensive, Ukraine could invoke Article 5, the clause in the treaty which stipulates an attack on one member state is an attack on all. NATO members would be duty-bound to come to Ukraine’s aid and declare war on Russia, something Zelenskyy hopes would pressure Putin into keeping his word and protect Ukraine from any future incursions.
But before negotiations have even begun, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has already ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine. Russia has stated it will not accept any deal where Ukraine joining NATO is a condition.
An alternative would be a ‘backstop’: a promise that if Russia violates the ceasefire, the US will stand behind Ukraine - if not through direct military action then at least through continued aid. Europe has pledged it will respond in this way, with some states even willing to put boots on the ground to show a military presence ready to defend Ukraine, but Trump has refused any such commitments.
Zelenskyy has shown willingness to sign agreements with the US in order to curry favour with Trump so that he might offer security guarantees. He has confirmed he would be happy to agree to a mineral deal which would allow the US access to some of the rare earth resources sitting beneath Ukrainian land - if it is amended to include the security guarantees he wants. Trump states that the presence of US companies in Ukraine will be enough to deter Russian aggression.
But without concrete security guarantees, Zelenskyy is sceptical Putin will abide by the agreed ceasefire and keep the peace. Since any deal which does not see Russia completely end its invasion will be gloomy for Ukraine, the war leader is unprepared to accept anything which does not come with assurances on future protections - otherwise, he might be giving away territory just for Russia to resupply and reattack tomorrow.
Peace in our time?
Trump’s recent suspensions of military aid seem to be an effort to pressure Zelenskyy into making a deal with Putin - or accepting one he negotiates on his country’s behalf. Republicans are hastily suggesting that by not taking this deal, the Ukrainian president is prolonging a brutal and expensive war rather than cauterising the bloodshed.
But it is wrong to say Zelenskyy does not want peace: he has been clear in his desire to bring an end to the war which is costing innocent lives.
However, a peace deal which offers Ukraine no benefits and seems to punish them for being the victim of an unprovoked assault will not be just - it will reward the aggressor. It will possibly also not be lasting - without security guarantees, Putin might be quick to breach the ceasefire. Ukraine will be asking itself if a bad peace is any better than no peace.
Ukraine needs to be in a position of strength for any negotiations, else it will lack the ability to demand Russian concessions too. Europe is keen to step up its defence commitments to at least partially plug the financial void America is leaving, offering Zelenskyy the opportunity to fight on and gain this position of strength.
He will be hoping this week’s talks with the US might offer further leverage if they can convince Trump to turn the heat on Putin. There is already a glimmer of hope here, with Trump tempering his stance by threatening to sanction Russia if it does not negotiate. This lends a degree of pressure to Putin to perhaps make concessions of his own.
But the US President and his Defence Secretary were quick to agree to nearly all Putin’s ultimatums when they spoke of the path ahead in February, strengthening Russia’s hand in any negotiation if it believes it can get exactly what it wants with little protest from Trump. Why would Russia compromise when Trump has already suggested he would accept their demands?
If they refuse to sign a deal Ukraine favours, it may come down to Trump on who to support. Will he have Ukraine’s back and try to pressure Russia into agreeing to Ukraine’s preferred option? Or will he look for the easy way out and side with Russia, demanding Ukraine makes territorial concessions to end the war? It all depends on what he values more: protecting his allies or winning the Nobel Peace Prize, even if that involves selling out his friends.
As a reminder, it was Russia who started this war. The entire conflict could end tomorrow if Putin simply walked his troops back across the border.
To Ukrainians who have fought and died for every inch of their turf, this is still the peace they want to see realised. That does not make them, or their leader, warmongers - rather, it exemplifies their spirit of resistance.
But they will all be asking the same fair question: why should we be punished for this war? If that is the cost of peace, then they may be far more willing to battle on.